The problem

Global fisheries catches have been declining since the late 1980s as a result of excessive fishing effort in traditional fishing grounds, with new fishing grounds, mainly in the deeper waters of the southern hemisphere, failing to compensate for the losses due to overfishing. Research conducted in the last decade has established that fishing impacts the structure of the ecosystems in which the target species are embedded, notably through the mortality of bycatch species and habitat modification. Indeed, this impact, particularly in the case of non-selective, habitat-modifying gears such a bottom trawls can be so strong as to destroy or severely deplete the resource base of fisheries. This represents an additional reason for the global decline of fisheries catches, which is most marked in bottom fishes.

Most of the problems in fisheries are related to overcapacity and unsustainable practices - problems which it in theory should be easy to identify and resolve. It remains disputed, however, how best to reduce capacity, how to balance trade-offs, how to ensure compliance with regulations, how to create incentives without subsidies, and what viable alternatives there are to current practices. Faced with such uncertainty the easiest solution for any politician is to wait and see: hopefully any tough decisions can be postponed till after the next election.

The bottom line of the situation is that the global catches are declining, that overcapacity is causing a massive misuse of sparse economic resources, and that the ecological resources are being steadily eroded. The problems are global in nature: fisheries that are managed sustainably are the rare exceptions.

The problems facing the fisheries have been widely recognized, and have led to a global trend toward ecosystem-based management of fisheries. This is done with the intention of promoting more responsible fisheries and acknowledging that there are more players than the fishing industry and government administration when it comes to taking decisions for how our marine resources and ecosystems are to develop.

It is also being recognized that the fisheries problems cannot be solved through legislation alone; even with suitable legislation there is little hope of compliance unless accompanying measures are taken. Compliance requires buy-in, and ensuring such requires evaluation of trade-offs and insurance that there are incentives in place for compliance - though not in form of subsidies as these as a rule leads to overexploitation.

The decision

The project aims to develop approaches and software that will be used to evaluate scenarios for sustainable management of fisheries and ecosystems. The aim of this development is to influence the ecosystem management process, notably where it involves high-level decisions makers, by supplying relevant information, demonstrating and visualizing economical, social and ecological consequences of a range of decision scenarios.

The research question

The time has come to identify and help implement, for ecosystems throughout the world, scenarios that allows for co-existence of thriving fisheries and productive ecosystems while ensuring habitat conservation and biodiversity concern. Some examples of research question that can be address using the methodology are: what are the likely ecological, economical and social consequences of increasing effort for fine-meshed, bottom-trawl fisheries in a given area; what can we do to improve feeding conditions for marine mammals; or what is the potential impact of a proposed protected area?

Technically, the main challenge is to develop a gaming approach that will engage a wide range of stakeholders and decision makers, and to convey in a comprehensive manner the ecological and social consequences of our actions in the marine ecosystem.

The research approach

The scientific tools that will serve as a basis for this activity already exist, principally in form of the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) approach and software. The software, which is developed by the project team, is beyond comparison the most widely used ecosystem modeling approach globally. It is currently used by scientists predominantly (over 3000 registered users in 124 countries), with focus on analyzing ecosystem interactions, describing population trends over time, evaluating how ecosystems are impacted by environmental and anthropogenic factors, as well as for evaluating policy options for management.

The users notably include scientists in fisheries laboratories and in academia. Fisheries laboratories are, as part of the general move toward ecosystem approaches to fisheries, becoming increasingly interested in ecosystem modeling. Initially the interest has been in using ecosystem models to explore ecological issues, but as the models capabilities have increased focus is shifting to addressing policy and conservation issues as part of the actual fisheries management process - notably in NMFS laboratories and regional US fisheries councils.

While the approach is being used increasingly as part of the fisheries management process, it does not, however, include a capacity that allow game playing by multiple players and the visualization that provides a semi-realistic environment. This proposal seeks to add these capabilities to the software and at the same time develop a more targeted version of the scientific software programmed in a new environment.

We have considerable experience with ecological modeling, and use the modeling to replicate the 'ecosystem history,' evaluating the impact of anthropogenic and environmental factors. We intend to use ecosystem models as the foundation for the activity, and we will develop a model for each application that describes population and exploitation trends since 1950, and, once the model is tuned based on what we know about the ecosystem, we will use the model in a forward looking simulation-mode to ask 'what-if' questions.

Given a realistic-looking simulated ecosystem, environmental consequences of various tactics and strategies can then be made visible, while the economic and social benefits to the different players can be tracked in the form of annual or longer term 'balance sheets.'

We will develop a methodology to explore scenarios for sustainable solutions to fisheries issues and their ecosystem impacts. We suggest a gaming approach to ecosystem-based management of fisheries based on simulated systems, made to represent the actual, detailed, information-rich situation of interest to the specific group of participants. In management workshops, participants will be able to visualize the ecological and economic consequences of their decisions, (e.g., to see the sea bottom impact of an expansion of deep sea trawling, as well as the ecological consequences of such loss of habitat). It will be possible to quickly run through a series of realistic scenarios that would, in reality, take years to unfold, and to test a range of scenarios to evaluate trade-offs, recognizing the importance of understanding stakeholder incentives and what may be done to incorporate consideration of such when developing management options. The expectation is that the gaming process will affect the perception of the participants, and provide a guide for positive change.

Our collective experience with earlier versions of the various components which, jointly, would generate the simulated ecosystem in question, leads us to believe that a series of workshops devoted to scenario development of this sort, if attended by high-level decision makers from the government and private sectors of major fishing countries, would make a positive difference to how fisheries are run in various parts of the world.

We see the development as a further merger of two lines of research. One deals with modeling of ecosystem resources and its use for fisheries management, and result from the development, use and support of the Ecopath with Ecosim software. More than two dozens training courses/workshops have been conducted worldwide as part of this activity. Further, a major activity of the UBC Institute of Resource Ecology was centered on development of what has become known as the Adaptive Environmental Assessment and Management (AEAM) process. The AEAM process was developed through modeling workshops that had a dual purpose of developing policy simulation models for case systems, and training people from those systems in systems modeling methods, policy analysis, and experimental management policy design. The UBC Institute of Resource Ecology with Professor Carl Walters as a key response person ran 34 workshops and courses examining a wide range of case systems.

Outcomes

The products and communications strategy

We will develop a new generation of the Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) software, reprogrammed in a new development environment. The software core will be designed to perform sophisticated simulations to predict how resources and exploitation will change given user inputs. If a manager decides to allow increased fishing effort, the ecosystem modeling software will calculate the impact this has on the ecosystem resources, on habitats, how this impacts prey, competitors and predators of the target species, etc. and, how such a move will affect the benefits to participants in all fisheries. Each model will be tuned to historic data and validated as part of the process. Uncertainty about policy outcomes will be handled by repeated simulations incorporating parameter and process uncertainty.

The simulation time steps will be monthly, while the actual duration of individual games will be dictated mainly by gaming constraints. It is intended to give the participants' time to think, discuss, form or break alliances, and take actions; yet when quick results are desirable, the simulation can be carried 'fast forward' to quickly evaluate different scenarios.

The computational aspects of the modeling will be conducted using a modified version of the existing EwE software. Basing the computations on the widely applied EwE has (apart from making the development easier) the advantage of delivering a 'doggy-bag' for the workshop participants to bring home - we will be using the same software and information that is actually being used for the real management; scenarios can be taken out, and run at home using EwE. It is likely that the fisheries scientists supporting the government managers participating in the summits will have experience already using EwE - if not, and as required, we will provide training beforehand.

Measurable objectives and project timeline

Specifically the deliverables of the two-year project phase are:

• A revised core EwE model with updated computer coding, a user interface designed for scientists, enhanced economic data, and improved economic analysis capabilities.
• Analysis of a multi-player game using the EwE model, along with the first prototype of the game (without extended graphics and visualization).
• Game analysis and design for a single-player CD-ROM-based version of the EwE game with standard computer quality graphics.
• Identify the local ecosystem and management issues to be addressed with the initial version of the single-player game in consultation with the Lenfest Ocean Program Director. This game will be designed to be adapted through minimal additional data entry and development to various local ecosystems, but the initial version will be for a single ecosystem and a defined set of management objectives.
• Design and plan internal workshops in preparation for the summits to be conducted after year four of the activity.